US Rate-Hike Pace May Slow as Payrolls Rebound and Democrats Sweep Both Chambers
October payrolls beat forecasts; Democratic sweep lowers odds of further 2026 hikes
Tracking macro policy, capital markets and industrial capital flows — a finance lens for our industry partners.
October payrolls beat forecasts; Democratic sweep lowers odds of further 2026 hikes
CPI +0.7% y/y, PPI +5.7% y/y at year-high; core CPI stays low
FX RRR lifted from 4% to 6% effective Nov 15 to absorb foreign-exchange liquidity
Third SFISF tranche at RMB 100bn; CNIC and Chengtong add stakes; 18 active ETFs raise ~RMB 44bn
State Council stresses intrinsic stability; stabilization becomes an institutional regime
After stabilization tools landed, A-shares rebounded with small-caps and tech leading
Report reaffirms market-stabilization mechanism and accommodative stance
Global risk-off and AI re-rating spill over to China equities
China makes market-support tools permanent; A-shares rally with 2T yuan turnover
CSRC refines buyback triggers and speeds ETF builds to normalize stabilization
Refined liquidity management after policy rate re-anchoring
Targeted tool stabilized capital market and supports value management
December hike odds near 73%; Friday payrolls seen as key test
AI value chain drives earnings; institutions add on dips
Tri-ministry package injects over 100b yuan of incremental liquidity into A-shares
US tech slumps, Middle East eases, midterms add to risk-off tone
Overnight reverse repo becomes main anchor; regulators optimize stabilization tools
Fed holds hawkish, BoE and RBA seen tightening; risk assets hit by liquidity fears
FOMC holds rates but shows 10:2 dissent
Manufacturing PMI at 49.3%; high-tech stays above 50
Overnight reverse repo at 1.25% becomes the main policy rate
September PCE at 3.6%; December hike odds ~84%
Fed pause eases external constraints on China's monetary stance
Fed plans fewer rate-vote meetings; December hike seen likely
Fed keeps rates unchanged; December hike expectations rise, widening US-China yield gap.
US 10Y at 5.1% vs China 1.6%; Goldman advises rotation to A-shares and banks.
Fed, ECB and BoJ meet this week; A-shares consolidate as industrial profits surge
Q3 reports show 39.30 trillion yuan AUM; tech and dividend stocks lead
BNSF targets redemption-selloff loops without a blanket bailout
Index splits as active ETFs raise ~25.3B yuan amid dual policy-rate window
PBOC's 700bn MLF on Oct 26; net mid-term liquidity injection of 200bn in October
CSRC approves Citi Securities (China); financial opening advances
ChiNext jumps 4.16%; equity ETFs see 158B yuan weekly inflow
Markets price a October hold but rising December hike odds tighten risk assets
A-shares reverse sharply on Friday; ChiNext jumps over 4%, active ETFs debut strong
PBOC trims MLF by 200B yuan while steering liquidity with greater precision
Four major fund houses each commit 200m yuan to active ETFs
Pan Gongsheng announces redemption liquidity tool at forum
800bn debut; banks to pay 260bn+ in interim dividends
Pan Gongsheng flags DR001 as target rate
1-year at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%; Pan signals shift to multi-benchmark lending rates
Lan Fo'an chairs regional fiscal coordination; Asia macro calendar heats up
PBOC to exit benchmark rates; CSRC approves active ETFs for ~¥36bn inflow
Tech rebound dents haven demand; December hike odds near 80%
China releases Q3 GDP; Financial Street Forum opens with PBOC's easing signal
Semiconductor selloff and oil spike cloud A-share outlook amid policy support
PBOC vice governor details offshore liquidity, asset access, capital account opening
CSI 300 core ETFs draw over RMB 22bn in one day amid volatile market
External rate-hike fears pose limited risk; A-shares hinge on fundamentals.
Active fiscal push and policy-finance tools ease funding constraints for infrastructure.
Pan Gongsheng pledges continued accommodative policy; imbalances need more than FX.
US Sept CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3% beat forecasts; hike odds surge, markets swing.
700B outright reverse repo tops up; October nets 400B yuan.
A-shares base-build on thin volume; Fed hike odds fade, Q4 catalysts loom.
On Oct 14 A-shares opened lower; PBOC conducted 56b yuan reverse repo.
Margin balances decline while RMB firms; post-holiday sentiment turns defensive.
Fed holds in October; Treasury yields ease, A-shares get a valuation-repair window
High rates fail to repel long-horizon foreign flows; structural bets on intelligent manufacturing
500bn reverse repo offsets 3tn maturity; rates stay low
1.54tn turnover; rotation toward low-valuation high-dividend
Weak payrolls and PCE slash hike odds; offshore RMB hits new high
Post-holiday liquidity support paired with fiscal recapitalization
PBOC's 1.2T reverse repo adds 200B net liquidity at Q4 start
A-shares reopen Oct 8; HK fell ~2% in break, funds rotate to defensives
PSL rate -0.25pp, six networks added, re-lending boosted
Turnover hits one-year low; tech remains core theme
Net 200bn MLF injection; PBOC pre-announces holiday reverse repos
Pension, annuity and insurance inflows; ETF assets near 5tn
FOMC lifted rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, first hike since 2023
PBOC pledges high-level financial opening; A-share indexes rose collectively
One-year LPR at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%, unchanged for 16 months.
Fed lifts rates to 3.75%-4.00%; BoJ to 1.25% as peers turn hawkish.
Brent slips to $99-100 as Hormuz shipping recovers, easing inflation bets.
Thin-volume oscillation with sharper structural divergence; caution dominates.
Combined 221 billion yuan distribution hits record; dividend logic reinforced.
August LGFV registration quota jumps 318.1 billion yuan; wealth products accelerate entry.
Mid/long-term capital access further eased.
Liquidity marginally tightens; bond yields hover in a narrow band.
Long-only buyers active; high-dividend strategy keeps leading.
Foreign risk appetite edges up; consumer and financial leaders see additions.
Unlocking idle assets and steering long-term capital to the real economy.